There seems to be a growing trend in NFL football. It’s begun to resemble two other professional sports leagues. The fact that three of the four teams who had bye weeks lost in the divisional round of the playoffs only furthers this notion. We’re down to the team nobody thought could win (Arizona), the team nobody wanted to play in the second round (Philly), the team always “eeks” out wins (Pittsburgh) and the team nobody wants to see win because they’re boring and I hate them (Baltimore). Fun, fun indeed. It wasn’t always this way though. It wasn’t always this way at all.
It used to be that having that first week off to rest, heal and prepare was a luxury that teams wanted. It was a luxury afforded to only the few teams who had really exceptional years; the ones who dominated their respective conferences and would usually go on to bigger and better things once the wild card foes were disposed of. Not anymore.
It used to be that the NFL playoffs were the one league playoffs where the better teams during the regular season would be the better teams during the playoffs as well. The regular season counted for something. Playing on wild card weekend (and winning) was little consolation because all it meant was a proper thrashing in the second round. Not anymore.
It used to be that the teams who played for the Super Bowl only had to win two games (usually home games to boot) to get there. The thought that anyone other then the Bills and the Giants-49ers winner would make SB XXV was ludicrous. The same thing applied in 1996 when Dallas and Pittsburgh played. Or in 2001 when the Vikings finished second in the NFC only to get shelled by New York in the infamous “play call stealing” NFC Championship game. It used to be that the thought of a wild card team, winning two or especially THREE straight road games to make the Super Bowl was to be risked being laughed out of a sports bar and possibly beaten. Not anymore.
So what’s changed? Why has the NFL playoffs somewhat resembled the NHL Playoffs the last oh, five or six years or so? It’s not just happening in football. Baseball has suffered a similar fate. All of a sudden, in baseball and football, being the best during the regular season and gaining home field advantage means little, like in hockey. The teams we all thought would win no longer do. Look at some of the facts.
In the first eight years of the revamped MLB playoffs which saw the number of teams per league admitted to the playoffs rise from two to four, only twice did a wild card team make the world series (’97 Marlins and ’00 Mets ) and only once did they win (’97). Conversely, since 2003 five teams have made the World Series via the wild card entry (’03 Marlins, ’04 Red Sox, ’05 Astros, and the ’07 Red Sox and Rockies) and those teams have won THREE of the last six World Series. (If you throw in the 84 win 2006 St Louis Cardinals it jumps to four; well done St. Louis: probably the biggest slap in the face to the idea that the regular season counts. “Just get me there” seems to be the new MLB credo)
In the NFL it’s begun to be the same. Since the NFL expanded from ten to twelve playoff teams in 1990 a wild card team has made the Super Bowl ten times. Not a big deal. However three of them have come since 2004 and TWO of those three did not get a home playoff game (’06 Steelers and ’08 Giants). This year, two of the final four did not play a home playoff game and we are a Baltimore win away from having the first ever Super Bowl decided by two teams who did NOT have the once coveted playoff bye week. How can this happen? What has changed to allow for the complete lack of home field advantage in the NFL playoffs? Is momentum really that big a deal? If Baltimore wins, can I call my buddy Ryan and compare his beloved Eli Manning to Joe Flacco?? (Ho, ho)
Bill Simmons from ESPN has a theory about the fact that new state of the art stadiums have taken the home field advantage away from football teams. “Surely the Chicago Bears do not go into the Hoosier dome and beat Indy with the loudness of that stadium do they?” I tend to agree. The three most devastating places to play a road game in the NFL used to be Indy, Denver and Kansas City. Now Indy and Denver have new stadiums (both of which are much quieter than the old ones) and Kansas City hasn’t had a viable team since Dante Hall. The fact that these new stadiums have a ton of luxury boxes and that the fans are so far away from the action might have something to do with it as well. They’re just not intimidating anymore. Hockey was the first sport to start and almost overhaul with new arenas and the same thing happened. (Baseball parks are still entirely different, so we’ll have to cover the peculiar baseball wild card theory another time)
Remember when a team would go into Chicago Stadium (or the Aud in Buffalo, or the old Boston Garden) and you just knew the road team had no chance in winning the game? It didn’t matter who was playing, the home ice advantage was humongous. The rinks were a little louder and the dimensions of the ice surfaces were a little smaller. In Montreal they had the ghosts of hockey past on their side. In Toronto well, ok Toronto was the one place the road team probably had the moneyline on their side. But still, look at the Stanley Cup final matchups since 1993 and how many of them did not finish in the Top 3 of their conference.
1993 – Montreal* vs Los Angeles*
1994 – NY Rangers vs Vancouver*
1995 – New Jersey* vs Detroit
1996 – Colorado vs Florida*
1997 – Philadelphia vs Detroit
1998 – Washington* vs Detroit
1999 – Buffalo* vs Dallas
2000 – New Jersey* vs Dallas
2001 – Colorado vs New Jersey
2002 – Carolina vs Detroit
2003 – New Jersey* vs Anaheim*
2004 – Tampa Bay vs Calgary*
2006 – Carolina vs Edmonton*
2007 – Anaheim vs Ottawa*
2008 – Detroit vs Pittsburgh
13 times. 13 out of 30, or just over 43% of the time! Compare that with the NBA finals (where only the ’99 Knicks have made the finals as an 8th seed; and where Seattle and Golden State winning first round series in 1994 and 2007 made major headlines) and you’ll see what I mean. The “Just get me there” mentality has been alive and well in the NHL for some time. That sort of thinking passed its way into the baseball playoffs in the middle of the decade and has broken through into the NFL the last three years. What brought it on though? Why is the bye week not such a majestic thing these days? It’s hard to say. All I know is that short of Fan Man’s illegitimate son crashing into the endzone during a Larry Fitzgerald touchdown reception nothing will surprise me this weekend. After what we’ve seen the first 18 weeks of the season, that’s almost due to happen. Let’s get to some picks shall we?
CARDINALS (+4) vs Eagles
We’ve all heard the arguments for the Iggles. “Donovan is in THE ZONE!” “His benching gave him a new found aura of invincibility!” “Andy Reid’s beard can scare off herpes.” Either way, I’m not buying it. Philly comes into their THIRD straight playoff road game favoured by 4 points and as much as I’d like to see the Eagles win this game (which I don’t) I can’t see them marching into a place where Arizona’s only two losses came vs the Giants (who were really in the ZONE then) and against Minnesota (after they’d clinched and turned off the burners for the final month of the season, thus making this NFC Championship game held in Glendale, Arz even more implausible) so that doesn’t count.
The fact is, Kurt Warner is a beast. He’s 7-2 all time in the playoffs. He’s got both of his receivers back this week and let’s face it: the only thing he was ever good at in this league was throwing the football. He’s about to cap the most up and down career of anyone who ever played in the NFL. He’s kind of like Mariah Carey. Much like Warner, Carey jumped into the music scene from nowhere with a string of hits, two huge albums, countless awards and shot to stardom even surpassing pre-crack Whitney Houston in terms of fame. (Which back then was huge! All you readers born after 1986 just trust me on that ok?) Then came the Unplugged/Music Box/Daydream trifecta during which she became the biggest star on the planet. Much like her, Warner did the same thing over the next two seasons after winning the Super Bowl as a nobody in 1999. He was untouchable during 2000-01. Setting passing records, TDs everywhere; the Rams were the games’ most elite team for those years and Warner was King of the World.
In 2000 Mariah became crazy and released Rainbow and the movie Glitter. Her stock plummeted and was laughed out of the music biz. Much like her, after the loss to the Patriots in the 2002 Super Bowl, his stock hit an all-time low and he was released. .i’ll repeat that…RELEASED by the Rams. The Rams!
(That season is one I still believe is one of the great sports conspiracies of all time; I have no evidence to back this up, but I am 100% certain that the NFL wanted the Patriots to win after the events of 9/11. Think about it: the Tuck Game, Bledsoe coming off the bench to beat Pittsburgh on the road (really?), the 503 point scoring and 14-2 St Louis Rams being held to 3 points for the first 51 minutes of the Super Bowl before firing off 14 straight points in the last 7 minutes to tie the game setting up a game winning FG by New England. (WTF??) I will always defend this)
Nevertheless, he was released by the Rams. The team who until 1999 had spent the entire decade of the 90s ridiculed by fans and media personnel alike; the team who moved from Los Angeles to St Louis and nobody really cared in La La Land; the team who, you know what it’s not even worth it. He was released by the Rams. Then he was released again by the Giants. Then he signed a nothing contract by the (arguably) worst team in football (at the time) and this year has made a comeback of epic proportions; just like Mariah did in 2005 when “We Belong Together” topped the charts for 3 solid months. Both of them are back and it wasn’t until that 2005 hit that we all realized how special a talent like Mariah’s is. If the Cardinals win on Sunday, we’ll all realize once and for all how special a talent like Kurt Warner’s is. If the Cardinals win on Sunday, he’ll join Tom Brady as the only active QB to take his team to three Super Bowls. And with TWO different teams. He’s playing for his first ballot HOF induction this weekend. He’ll get it.
Cardinals 23, Eagles 13.
STEELERS (-5.5) vs Ravens
I’m not sure what it is. Maybe it’s the purple uniforms. Maybe it’s the boring style of play. Maybe it’s because their last offensive star who lasted more than a year was Bernie Kosar like 20 years ago. Whatever it is, I hate the Ravens. I can’t see Joe Flacco winning three straight playoff road games. Sooner or later it’s going to come back to haunt him. It has to. On the other hand, I’m the guy who just wrote almost 1400 words about how home field means nothing in the playoffs and anyone can win anywhere. On the other other hand, I’m the only one around who picked the Cards last week. Go me. Pittsburgh wins at home. See you in Tampa Bay in a couple weeks.
Steelers 17, Ravens 6.
Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 4-4
Season: 133-125-8
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